Application of machine learning to predict delayed fecundability among women in sub-Saharan Africa
Many women struggle to get pregnant even after trying for a year or more, a condition called delayed fecundability. This issue is becoming more common worldwide and can signal problems with fertility. We used data from surveys in five African countries to find out which factors may predict this delay. Using computer models that can learn from data, we found that age, marital status, and past use of fertility treatments were strong predictors. Our best model correctly identified nearly 80% of women with delayed fecundability. To make the findings easy to understand, we used a method that explains how each factor influences the result. We also found that the effects of these factors vary by age and treatment history. Our results can help health workers identify women at higher risk earlier, especially in places where fertility services are limited, and provide them with better, more personalized care.
Authors
- Banchlay Addis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2359-1179)
- Meron Asmamaw Alemayehu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1852-0771)
- Habtamu Abebe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3861-0782)
- Gebrie Getu Alemu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9451-2128)
- Habtamu Wagnew Abuhay (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9538-7612)
- Tilahun Yemanu Birhan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1614-8814)
- Eyob Akalewold Alemu
- Nebiyu Mekonnen Derseh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1355-2763)
- Getaneh Awoke Yismaw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1494-5131)
- Emebet Birhanu Lealem (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2242-7573)
- Mekuriaw Nibret Aweke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7152-6435)
- Berhanie Addis Ayele
- Fetlework Gubena Arage (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1447-6214)
- Tigist Kifle Tsegaw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0966-9312)
Institutions
- University of Gondar (ET)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Reproduction and Fertility
- Published
- 2025-09-16
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1530/raf-25-0068
- Primary Topic
- Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00