Mapping pluralistic future flood risk scenarios for informal settlements in the eThekwini metropolitan municipality, South Africa

Abstract Major flooding events in 2019, 2022, and 2024 caused major loss of life, economic losses and damage to infrastructure in the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, South Africa. The rapid expansion of informal settlements and intensifying rainfall patterns due to climate change are creating uncertainty about the future extent of flood risk in the municipality and which communities would be at risk from flooding in different climate change scenarios. This paper argues that anticipatory governance principles (AG) integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) could provide the municipality with a novel method to assess future flood risk scenarios for informal settlements within its jurisdiction. Using a pluralistic futures-based approach to AG, flood risk scenarios are projected for 2050 based on best-case, middle-of-the-road and worst-case scenarios. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was used to create flood risk maps for the various flood risk scenarios. The findings indicate that some of the municipality’s biggest and most densely populated informal settlements, including Inanda, Umlazi, KwaMashu and KwaMakhuta will face exposure to extremely high flood risk in all flood risk scenarios by 2050. Approximately 46.8 km² of informal settlements within the municipality will face extremely high flood risk by 2050. This study reiterates the need for anticipatory urban planning and disaster risk reduction strategies that accommodate diverse future scenarios. Integrating AG with GIS mapping presents a robust tool for enhancing flood risk reduction in informal settlements.