Modelling the spatiotemporal variations in hospital-acquired infections with fractional derivatives

Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) are a major public health challenge worldwide. They involve complex and varied transmission dynamics between healthcare workers (HCWs) and patients. Different hospital wards have different risks for acquiring and spreading HAIs. Intensive care units (ICUs) have a higher transmission risk than non-ICU wards. To evaluate how this heterogeneity influences HAI transmission dynamics, we developed a two-patch mathematical model. It represents ICU and non-ICU wards and focuses on HCW mobility between them. Our analysis used a Lagrangian mobility perspective. We found that maintaining hand hygiene compliance of at least 80% can lower the basic reproduction number below one. However, if 20% or more of HCWs spend significant time in the ICU, the transmission risk remains high. These results highlight the importance of considering ward-specific risks. They are crucial for developing effective disease control strategies.

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Journal
Discover Public Health
Published
2025-09-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00947-2
Primary Topic
Fractional Differential Equations Solutions
Type
article
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article

Modelling the spatiotemporal variations in hospital-acquired infections with fractional derivatives

Steady Mushayabasa, Eva Lusekelo, Mlyashimbi Helikumi, Salamida Daudi
Discover Public Health
Fractional Differential Equations Solutions
article

Modelling the spatiotemporal variations in hospital-acquired infections with fractional derivatives

Steady Mushayabasa, Eva Lusekelo, Mlyashimbi Helikumi, Salamida Daudi
article en

Abstract

Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) are a major public health challenge worldwide. They involve complex and varied transmission dynamics between healthcare workers (HCWs) and patients. Different hospital wards have different risks for acquiring and spreading HAIs. Intensive care units (ICUs) have a higher transmission risk than non-ICU wards. To evaluate how this heterogeneity influences HAI transmission dynamics, we developed a two-patch mathematical model. It represents ICU and non-ICU wards and focuses on HCW mobility between them. Our analysis used a Lagrangian mobility perspective. We found that maintaining hand hygiene compliance of at least 80% can lower the basic reproduction number below one. However, if 20% or more of HCWs spend significant time in the ICU, the transmission risk remains high. These results highlight the importance of considering ward-specific risks. They are crucial for developing effective disease control strategies.

Discover Public HealthVol. 22(1)
University of Zimbabwe (ZW), Harare Institute of Technology (ZW), The University of Dodoma (TZ), Mbeya University of Science and Technology (TZ), National Institute of Transport (TZ)
Openalex Percentile: Top 72%
Fractional Differential Equations Solutions
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Modelling the spatiotemporal variations in hospital-acquired infections with fractional derivatives — Steady Mushayabasa, Eva Lusekelo, et al. · Discover Public Health (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS