Dynamics of Cropping Pattern and its Drivers and Impacts: A Theil–Sen Estimator Approach in Anantnag District, Kashmir Valley, India

This study examines the changes in the production and cultivation areas of perennial fruit crops (apple, walnut, pear, cherry) and paddy in Anantnag district, Kashmir Valley, from 2001 to 2020.The focus is to analyze the relationship between these changes and rainfall patterns by incorporating the Theil-Sen estimator and confidence intervals. Using Landsat imagery and ArcMap, land use and land cover (LULC) changes were analysed, particularly in the Lidder Valley, a traditionally fertile region for both paddy and apple cultivation. The findings show that in 2001, rice was cultivated on 38,893 hectares with an average yield of 2.96 tonnes per hectare. By 2020, both the cultivation area and yield had decreased to 21,730 hectares and 2.04 tonnes per hectare, respectively. In contrast, perennial fruit crops area increased from 29,248 hectares (producing 203,558 metric tonnes) in 2001 to 31,790 hectares (producing 254,192 metric tonnes) in 2020. Satellite analysis of the Lidder Valley confirmed this trend, revealing a reduction in rice cultivation from 118 sq. km in 2001 to 50.5 sq. km in 2020, while perennial fruit crops areas expanded by 92 sq. km. Rainfall data showed a decline of 5.2 mm per year at Pahalgam and 10.4 mm per year at Kokernagh, highlighting the impact of decreasing rainfall on water-intensive paddy cultivation. A survey found that 50% of respondents attributed the shift to climate change and water scarcity, while 40% cited economic and 10% mentioned other factors. . While the growth of apple orchards has improved farmer’s socio-economic conditions, the decline in paddy production raises concerns about food security, health, and environmental sustainability. The study underscores the urgent need for sustainable land-use planning to ensure economic resilience, food sustainability, environmental protection, and public health in the region.