Elections in hard times: factors of the incumbent defeat at the sub-national level

The results of the 2021 elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation generally reaffirmed the electoral dominance of the United Russia party. However, unlike the 2016 electoral cycle, they also revealed the defeat of the “party in power” in four Russian regions. This article explores the causes of the incumbent party’s electoral failures at the subnational level through a paired comparative analysis of the republics of Yakutia (Sakha) and Bashkortostan. The analysis concludes that one possible factor contributing to the decline in electoral support for the “party in power” at the regional level is institutional — specifically, the presence of direct elections for heads of municipalities. In Yakutia, this institutional feature prevented the new regional leader from establishing effective political control over key political actors. By contrast, the new head of Bashkortostan, operating without such constraints, was able to quickly consolidate the regional elite, suppress opposition forces, and increase electoral support for the “party in power”, even amid epidemiological and economic crises.