Assessing the Distribution and Stability of Groundwater Climatic Refugia: Cliff-Face Seeps in the Pacific Northwest

Microrefugia can be critical in mediating biological responses to climate change, but the location and characteristics of these habitats are often poorly understood. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) represent critical microrefugia for species dependent on cool, moist habitats. However, knowledge of the distribution and stability of GDE microrefugia remains limited. This challenge is typified in the Pacific Northwest, where poorly studied cliff-face seeps harbor exceptional biodiversity despite their diminutive size (e.g., ~1–10 m width). To improve knowledge about these microrefugia, we regionally modeled their distribution and stability. We searched for cliff-face seeps across 1608 km of roads, trails, and watercourses in Washington and Idaho, while monitoring water availability plus air and water temperatures at selected sites. We detected 457 seeps through an iterative process of surveying, modeling, ground-truthing, and then remodeling the spatial distribution of seeps using boosted regression trees. Additionally, we used linear and generalized linear models to identify factors linked to seep thermal and hydrologic stability. Seeps were generally most concentrated in steep and low-lying areas (e.g., edges of canyon bottoms), and were also positively associated with glacial drift, basalt or graywacke bedrock types, high average slope within 300 m, and low average vapor pressure deficit. North-facing slopes were the best predictor of stable air and water temperatures and perennial seep discharge; low-lying areas also predicted stable seep water temperatures. These findings improve possibilities to manage seep microrefugia in the Pacific Northwest and safeguard their associated biodiversity under climate change. Lastly, our iterative method adapts techniques commonly used in species distribution modeling to provide an innovative framework for identifying inconspicuous microrefugia.