Growth Trends, Instability, and Export Potential of Horticultural Crops in Assam: A Comparative Analysis with India

This paper examines the growth trends and stability of horticultural crop area, production, and productivity in Assam and India, as well as the growth rate of agricultural and horticultural export contributions from Assam to India’s total horticultural exports. This paper primarily used secondary data to examine the growth rate, with employing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR). To examine the variation in these variables an instability index was calculated using the Cuddy-Della Valle Index. The study found that during the year 2013-14 to 2022-23, horticultural crop area, production, and productivity recorded rising trends; the growth rate of the area of Assam (2.90) was higher than that of India (2.10), but in terms of production India (2.90) registered a higher growth rate than Assam (2.30), whereas the productivity growth rate of India (0.70) was found to be significantly higher than that of Assam (-0.50), which resulted in a negative growth rate. The productivity of Assam's horticultural crops also indicated higher instability (2.04) than India's (1.15). Again, results related to agricultural and horticultural exports showed that Assam registered higher growth rates in both variables—14.20% and 4.50%, respectively—compared to India's 4% and 3.60%. However, in terms of consistency in exports, Assam recorded moderate and massive inconsistency in agricultural and horticultural exports, respectively. Again, to support the argument of the export potential, the supply-demand gap of fruits and vegetables was calculated, and it found that Assam has exported less than 1 percent of surplus production and that Assam has untapped export potential in agriculture and horticulture.