Anomaly levels of factors affecting the estimated price of a second-hand ship

This is a study to determine the variables, and their effects related to second-hand ship prices and predict the prices of ships with the anomalies and make suggestions to their reasons on information acquired from the sales of 1,283 pre-owned Panamax-class vessels between 2010 and 2022. The regression model was used as a pre-selection method to specify the variables associated with the prices of second-hand ships, and the artificial neural networks model was used to predict the prices of these ships and to determine the anomalies related to the price estimation. As a result, there is a significant relationship between the age of the ships, tonnage, LIBOR interest rates, crude oil prices, freight rates and second-hand prices. In ships older than 20 years and between 65,000-75,000 DWT, very low and high freight rates, low crude oil prices and high interest rates, anomaly prices are high.

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics
Published
2025-01-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1504/ijstl.2025.148485
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.13
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article

Anomaly levels of factors affecting the estimated price of a second-hand ship

Ersin Açıkgöz, Burak Göksu, Gülden Öner
1 citations
International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics
Market Dynamics and Volatility
3.13
article

Anomaly levels of factors affecting the estimated price of a second-hand ship

Ersin Açıkgöz, Burak Göksu, Gülden Öner
article en
1 citations

Abstract

This is a study to determine the variables, and their effects related to second-hand ship prices and predict the prices of ships with the anomalies and make suggestions to their reasons on information acquired from the sales of 1,283 pre-owned Panamax-class vessels between 2010 and 2022. The regression model was used as a pre-selection method to specify the variables associated with the prices of second-hand ships, and the artificial neural networks model was used to predict the prices of these ships and to determine the anomalies related to the price estimation. As a result, there is a significant relationship between the age of the ships, tonnage, LIBOR interest rates, crude oil prices, freight rates and second-hand prices. In ships older than 20 years and between 65,000-75,000 DWT, very low and high freight rates, low crude oil prices and high interest rates, anomaly prices are high.

International Journal of Shipping and Transport LogisticsVol. 21(2)
Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University (TR)
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Market Dynamics and Volatility
3.13
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