Measuring the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Gross Domestic Product in Iraq

The aim of the research was to measure and analyze the impact of certain macroeconomic variables (public expenditure, money supply, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and export volume) on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Iraq for the period 2004-2023. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to measure the dynamic interactions in both the short and long term between these macroeconomic variables as independent variables and GDP as the dependent variable. The research hypothesized that there is both an inverse and direct impact of certain macroeconomic variables on GDP in Iraq. The research reached several conclusions, the most important of which was the confirmation of the research hypothesis. This was demonstrated by the fact that money supply, inflation rate, and unemployment rate had a direct and inverse impact on GDP in the short term, while public expenditure and exports had a direct impact. In the long term, public expenditure and unemployment rate had an inverse impact on GDP, while money supply, inflation rate, and exports had a direct impact on GDP. Accordingly, the research recommended that economic policymakers in Iraq focus on balanced management of public expenditure and money supply, while promoting exports and controlling inflation and unemployment rates, to achieve sustainable growth in GDP in both the short and long term