Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Litani River Basin in Lebanon for the Period 2009–2019 and Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Under RCP Scenarios

This study investigates the combined impact of climate change and land use changes on water resources and soil conditions in the Litani River Basin (LRB) in Lebanon. The Mediterranean region, including the LRB, is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study utilizes the WiMMed (Water Integrated Management for Mediterranean Watersheds) model to assess hydrological variables such as infiltration, runoff, and soil moisture for the years 2009, 2014, and 2019. It considers 2019 climate conditions to project the 2040 scenarios for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, incorporating the unique characteristics of the Mediterranean watershed. Results indicate a concerning trend of declining infiltration, runoff, and soil moisture, particularly under the more severe RCP 8.5 scenario, with the most significant reductions occurring during summer. Land use changes, such as deforestation and urban expansion, are identified as key contributors to reduced infiltration and increased runoff. This study highlights the critical role of soil moisture in crop productivity and ecosystem health, showing how land cover changes and climate change intensify these effects. Soil moisture is highly sensitive to precipitation variations, with a 20% reduction in precipitation and a 5 °C temperature increase leading to substantial decreases in soil moisture. These findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable land management practices and climate mitigation strategies in the Litani River Basin (LRB) and similar Mediterranean watersheds. Protecting forests, implementing soil conservation measures, and promoting responsible urban development are crucial steps to maintain water resources and soil quality. Furthermore, this research offers valuable insights for policymakers, farmers, and environmentalists to prepare for potential droughts or flooding events, contributing to the preservation of this vital ecosystem. The data from this study, along with the recommended actions, can play a crucial role in fostering resilience at the national level, addressing the challenges posed by climate change.