Quantitative Hazard Assessment of Mining-Induced Seismicity Using Spatiotemporal b-Value Dynamics from Microseismic Monitoring

Mining-induced seismicity poses significant safety risks in deep coal mining operations, necessitating advanced monitoring and accurate hazard assessment. Based on 15,584 microseismic events from a coal mine in Gansu, China, in 2024, this study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of mining-induced seismicity and its quantitative relationship with excavation disturbances. The methodology integrates Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) clustering analysis with maximum likelihood estimation of b-value. Key findings include: (1) GMM clustering effectively identifies distinct seismic zones under different stress states, with significant variations in b-values (0.64–0.70). Low b-value zones correspond to high stress concentration and potential for strong events, enabling refined hazard assessment; (2) The time-sliding window analysis reveals the dynamic evolution of the b-value, which exhibits a clear negative correlation with high-energy seismic activity. When the b-value drops sharply to 0.6 or below, the likelihood of high-energy events increases markedly. Notably, 7 out of 8 high-energy seismic events occurred below this threshold. (3) Seismicity migrates with working face advancement, with monthly excavation length positively correlating with seismic energy release, confirming excavation as the primary trigger. This b-value spatiotemporal analysis framework provides scientific basis for early warning and mining optimization in deep coal mines.