The Synergistic Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Wetland Expansion in Xinjiang

Wetlands function as crucial transitional zones between land and water ecosystems worldwide, contributing significantly to the stability of local ecosystems. However, there is limited research on landscape changes in Xinjiang’s arid interior regions and the factors driving these changes. This study uses data reanalysis techniques to examine the spatial and temporal evolution and landscape patterns of wetlands, as well as their driving forces, in Xinjiang between 1990 and 2023. The results show that over the past three decades, the wetland area in Xinjiang has grown from 18,427 km2 in 1990 to 21,532 km2 in 2023, with an annual increase of about 94 km2. The greatest growth in wetlands, particularly lakes, marshes, and rivers, has occurred around the periphery of the Tarim Basin and the Ili River Basin, while mountainous areas have seen slight reductions. The distribution pattern shows higher wetland coverage in southern Xinjiang and less coverage in the north, with the largest proportion of wetlands found in the south. Additionally, wetland expansion has led to improvements in the number, density, aggregation, and connectivity of wetland patches, while the complexity of their shapes has decreased. The overall habitat quality of wetlands has also improved over time. Attribution analysis highlights that the rise in runoff due to temperature increases over the past 30 years is a major driver of wetland expansion, with warming accounting for the largest share of expansion in lakes (36%) and in rivers (47.9%). Furthermore, the implementation of large-scale engineering measures, such as ecological water diversion, water-saving irrigation, and reservoir management, has contributed significantly to wetland expansion and ecological restoration. These results provide useful insights for the long-term conservation and management of wetland resources in the arid areas of Xinjiang.