Fiscal Effects of Firearm Taxes in California and Colorado

ABSTRACT California and Colorado recently enacted ad valorem excise taxes on firearms and ammunition, earmarking the tax revenues for public safety and victim services. But revenue collections in California have fallen far short of initial projections, and Colorado's revenue forecasts may also prove to be overestimates. This note explores the reasons for the shortfall and applies recent elasticity estimates to a model of sales revenue, thereby generating more realistic forecasts of excise and sales tax revenues. State‐level price elasticities in California are also estimated by comparing sales in the periods immediately before and after the implementation of the excise tax.