Impact of Future Climate Change on the Climatic Suitability of Tea Planting on Hainan Island, China

Hainan Island is one of the main tea-producing regions in South China. Climate change has increased agricultural instability, causing fluctuations in tea yield and quality. Based on daily surface meteorological data from 19 national meteorological observation stations on the island from 1990 to 2019, as well as related factors such as topography, a spatial analysis model for climate zoning indicators was established. Zoning indicators were spatialized through GIS spatial analysis, and fuzzy logic was applied to construct membership functions based on climatic elements to assess climatic suitability for tea cultivation. This approach helped refine zoning for tea planting areas and assess potential future climate changes. Results show high climatic suitability for tea production in spring (March-May) and autumn (September–October), but low suitability in summer (June–August) due to high temperatures and strong sunlight. The most suitable zone for tea planting is centered in the northeastern parts of the island; the suitable zone is mainly distributed in the central mountainous areas and the western coastal region; the sub-suitable zone mainly includes central and southern parts of Dongfang; and the unsuitable zone mainly includes eastern and southern parts of Dongfang and southern parts of Changjiang. Under future climatic scenarios, the island’s temperatures will further increase, and suitable temperature areas will shrink from the periphery toward the central mountainous regions. Precipitation will also increase over time, leading to an expansion of suitable precipitation areas on the island. This study helps promote sustainable tea production and the rational utilization of agricultural climate resources on Hainan Island.