Forecasting Electricity Spot Market Prices Based on LSTM and GCN

Forecasting prices of spot electricity markets is crucial for power system operation and market decisions. This paper proposes a hybrid model combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to address the spatial-temporal complexity in forecasting electricity prices. The model uses LSTM to capture temporal features at individual grid nodes and GCN to model spatial correlations based on grid topology. Through end-to-end training, the model integrates temporal and spatial factors effectively. Key innovations include spatial-temporal coupling, dynamic adaptation to grid changes, and enhanced interpretability for forecasting locational marginal prices. Potential improvements like multi-head attention mechanisms are also discussed, highlighting potential of the model for accurate and reliable price forecasting in dynamic electricity markets.

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Publication Details

Published
2025-06-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1109/icesep66633.2025.11155677
Primary Topic
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Forecasting Electricity Spot Market Prices Based on LSTM and GCN

Chengshan Wang, Pengfei Fan, Jiangwei Hou
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
article

Forecasting Electricity Spot Market Prices Based on LSTM and GCN

Chengshan Wang, Pengfei Fan, Jiangwei Hou
article en

Abstract

Forecasting prices of spot electricity markets is crucial for power system operation and market decisions. This paper proposes a hybrid model combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to address the spatial-temporal complexity in forecasting electricity prices. The model uses LSTM to capture temporal features at individual grid nodes and GCN to model spatial correlations based on grid topology. Through end-to-end training, the model integrates temporal and spatial factors effectively. Key innovations include spatial-temporal coupling, dynamic adaptation to grid changes, and enhanced interpretability for forecasting locational marginal prices. Potential improvements like multi-head attention mechanisms are also discussed, highlighting potential of the model for accurate and reliable price forecasting in dynamic electricity markets.

Tianjin University (CN), China Power Engineering Consulting Group (China) (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 76%
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
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