A machine learning model combining ultrasound features and serological markers predicts gallbladder polyp malignancy: A retrospective cohort study

Differentiating benign from malignant gallbladder polyps (GBPs) is critical for clinical decisions. Pathological biopsy, the gold standard, requires cholecystectomy, underscoring the need for noninvasive alternatives. This retrospective study included 202 patients (50 malignant, 152 benign) who underwent cholecystectomy (2018-2024) at Fujian Provincial Hospital. Ultrasound features (polyp diameter, stalk presence), serological markers (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], CA19-9), and demographics (age, sex, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, comorbidities, alcohol history) were analyzed. Patients were split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. Ten machine learning (ML) algorithms were trained; the model with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was selected. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) identified key predictors. Models were categorized as clinical (ultrasound + age), hematological (NLR + CA19-9), and combined (all 5 variables). ROC, precision-recall, calibration, and decision curve analysis curves were generated. A web-based calculator was developed. The Extra Trees model achieved the highest AUC (0.97 in training, 0.93 in validation). SHAP analysis highlighted polyp diameter, sessile morphology, NLR, age, and CA19-9 as top predictors. The combined model outperformed clinical (AUC 0.89) and hematological (AUC 0.68) models, with balanced sensitivity (66%-54%), specificity (94-93%), and accuracy (87%-83%). This ML model integrating ultrasound and serological markers accurately predicts GBP malignancy. The web-based calculator facilitates clinical adoption, potentially reducing unnecessary surgeries.