The Extreme Storm over the Cyclades on 31 March 2025: The Role of Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures in the Intensification of the Event

On 31 March 2025, a severe thunderstorm system affected the Cyclades region, causing extensive flash floods on the islands of Paros and Mykonos and leading to significant material damage. This study investigates the meteorological characteristics of the event and focuses on the potential role of elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in intensifying the storm’s severity. The analysis is centered on the broader Aegean region (geographic extent: 41.25° N, 21.83° E to 34.30° N, 28.51° E), utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data from ECMWF. These data provide high-resolution information on the atmospheric and ocean surface conditions during the event. The primary research objective is to explore how warmer SSTs may have contributed to enhanced moisture in the lower troposphere and increased energy availability for convective storm development. The theoretical background and a preliminary data exploration suggest that elevated SSTs likely favored increased evaporation, enhanced low-level moisture transport, and greater atmospheric instability, leading to the development of deep convective clouds. This, in turn, may have intensified precipitation rates and elevated the flood risk. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms behind such extreme weather events, particularly in island environments, and to explore the sea’s potential catalytic role under a changing climate.