Regional climate damage and social cost of carbon in South Korea

This study estimates regional climate change damage and domestic social cost of carbon (DSCC) across 17 provinces in South Korea using a probabilistic approach. Unlike previous studies that relied on deterministic scenarios at the national level, this research incorporates regional heterogeneity in climate and socio-economic changes while accounting for future uncertainties through probabilistic projections. We construct long-term socio-economic-climate scenarios and downscale national projections to the provincial level, applying empirical damage estimates based on precipitation-induced economic growth impacts. Our analysis reveals substantial regional disparities in climate damage costs. The total damage for South Korea is estimated at approximately 87 trillion won (2030 ~ 2060, present value), with the Seoul Metropolitan Area-comprising Gyeonggi Province, Seoul, and Incheon-accounting for over 59% of total damages. Gyeonggi Province faces the highest absolute damage costs, averaging 13 trillion won annually in the mid-term period (2040 ~ 2060). The regional DSCC ranges from 94 won/tCO₂ in Jeonbuk to 4,199 won/tCO₂ in Gyeonggi, a 45-fold difference. When expressed as a percentage of regional GDP, Daejeon, Gwangju, Incheon, and Sejong show the highest relative vulnerability. All regions exhibit rapidly increasing damage costs, particularly in the mid-term period, with significant tail risks indicating potential extreme losses. These findings demonstrate the necessity for differentiated regional climate policies rather than uniform national approaches. The results provide crucial quantitative evidence for regional climate adaptation planning and budget allocation, emphasizing the urgency of targeted interventions in high-risk areas while considering extreme scenario planning across all regions.