Modeling urban fire risk using the AHP-GIS method and sensitivity analysis: a case study in the City of Santa Fe, Argentina

The urban fire risk (UFR) poses a significant threat in the City of Santa Fe, Argentina, where the lack of targeted guidelines for implementing preventive and protective measures, coupled with the absence of a comprehensive UFR map, constrains the city's ability to identify the most at-risk areas effectively. Accordingly, this study aims to develop a citywide UFR model by integrating expert knowledge and performing sensitivity analysis to ensure the robustness of the results. This spatial model, integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process with a GIS, was developed at a 100-meter resolution. This approach enabled the weighting of nine criteria, which were then combined with geospatial data to produce a risk map categorized into five levels: low, moderate, high, very high, and extreme. The reliability of the criteria weights was validated using the Consistency Ratio and the Geometric Consistency Index. The model’s sensitivity was evaluated using the One-At-a-Time local analysis method and the Sobol global analysis method. The criteria related to population and infrastructures were identified as the most influential criteria in UFR. Furthermore, 36% of the city was classified as high-risk, with the city center identified as very high-risk, while two densely populated neighborhoods were categorized as extreme-risk. This study aids authorities in identifying the most critical risk factors and prioritizing the most exposed areas, enabling the implementation of strategies to mitigate UFR.