Road Transports Decarbonization Pathways to 2050: Optimized Scenarios for the Italian Case Study

Growing concerns about climate change have incentivized global efforts toward sustainable energy, with the EU aiming for climate neutrality by 2050 through policies like the Green Deal. Italy, where transport contributes 33.5% of CO<inf xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</inf> emissions, targets deep decarbonization of the sector. This study investigates pathways to reduce transport emissions by 90% by 2050 (50% by 2030) using Monte Carlo simulations and Differential Evolution. Two strategies are compared: a local approach optimizing subsectors individually, and a global strategy optimizing the entire sector. Results suggest that the global approach enables faster decarbonization, while the local one offers more sectoral flexibility.