An Improved ADC Effectiveness Evaluation Method for On-Orbit Spacecraft Based on Anomaly Information

Spacecraft, as high-value and high-mission-significance systems, present significant challenges for on-orbit maintenance and repair, making precise evaluations of their performance indices essential. This study introduces an improved effectiveness evaluation method for on-orbit spacecraft, leveraging historical anomaly information to enhance the traditional ADC method. The proposed method addresses critical issues in spacecraft effectiveness evaluation, including the rarity of data samples for abnormal states and the difficulties in obtaining conventional reliability metrics such as mean time between failures (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR). By substituting probability with possibility in the Availability vector and utilizing average repair time to assess Dependability, this method offers a practical framework for evaluating spacecraft effectiveness based on anomaly information. Furthermore, a system architecture for spacecraft effectiveness evaluation is developed, and a case study is provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method. The findings demonstrate the method's capability to improve the evaluation procedures of spacecraft systems' effectiveness, ensuring their readiness to meet mission objectives.