Reserve Planning for Interconnected Power Systems Based on Reliability Assessment Using Regional Unit Outage Probability Approximation

Reserve planning for interconnected power systems faces challenge due to high computational cost of iterative reliability assessments. To overcome it, this paper proposes an efficient reserve planning method based on a novel reliability assessment framework. The core of the framework lies in the regional outage probability approximation, which uses recursive convolution combined with spline fitting to generate a continuous cumulative density function (CDF) of each region’s available capacity. This CDF facilitates rapid state sampling with the Sobol sequence. The resulting efficient reliability assessment can be embedded in an iterative reserve planning process to determine the reserve capacity required to meet the reliability target. Validated on the modified IEEE RTS-79 system, the proposed method achieves a high accuracy and significant computational speedup compared to the conventional framework.