Evaluating urban growth patterns of Kathmandu in fragile geographies of the middle Himalayas

Abstract In rapidly urbanizing and seismically vulnerable regions, understanding the intricate dynamics of urban growth is essential for mitigating risks and enabling sustainable development. This study offers an in-depth examination of urban expansion within the Kathmandu Urban Agglomeration over the past three decades (1989–2018), utilizing satellite imagery and sophisticated statistical models to quantify urban growth patterns and their evolving characteristics. The findings reveal a remarkable 123.97% increase in the Kathmandu urban area, with unplanned sprawl contributing an additional 51.82 km². Key metrics, including the compactness index (increasing from 0.50 to 0.75) and Shannon’s Entropy (rising from 1.361 to 1.381) reveal a dual narrative of concentrated urban development alongside spatial dispersion. Meanwhile, the declining elasticity coefficient (from 0.95 to 0.78) underscores the saturation of central urban zones, forcing horizontal growth into marginal and hazard-prone areas. By 2018, a staggering 76.73% of the habitable land within the optimal elevation range (1301–1320 m) and slopes of less than 30° had been urbanized, severely limiting future expansion options and amplifying the challenges of sustainable city management. This trend highlights the escalating challenges of managing urban growth in Kathmandu, a city located in a seismically active zone with restricted opportunities for spatial extension. The innovative integration of urban form indicators and growth projections, coupled with an acute focus on environmental and geological constraints, provides fresh insights into the trajectory of urbanization in fragile regions. This study stresses the urgent need for data-driven urban planning, participatory governance, and adaptive policy frameworks to promote sustainable, disaster-resilient development. The research offers critical lessons for policymakers and urban planners in seismically sensitive regions, offering a practical blueprint for managing rapid urbanization without jeopardizing ecological integrity and resilience to natural disasters.