DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES OF CHERNIVTSI REGION: AT THE TURNING POINT OF WAR

The state of the population reflects the overall level of a country’s development and is a critical factor in its resilience in the face of internal and external challenges. The full-scale war in Ukraine has caused unprecedented demographic problems, which are reflected in a rapid decline in population, mass forced migration, increasing regional disparities, and a deepening demographic crisis. Under such circumstances, the study and analysis of demographic structure transformations gain particular importance, as they form the basis for making strategic decisions aimed at improving the demographic situation, shaping effective demographic policies, strengthening the capacity of communities, and ensuring the sustainable development of regions. This article examines the characteristics of demographic processes over recent decades and the demographic situation in Chernivtsi Region prior to the full-scale invasion. The dynamics of the region’s population size, gender and age structure, ethnic composition, and settlement patterns are analysed. Research at the community level before the full-scale stage of the war made it possible to capture a baseline – the demographic situation “before the turning point”, which is an important condition for future comparison, assessment of changes, and the definition and implementation of demographic policy strategies. As part of a comparative analysis of the demographic development of territorial communities in Chernivtsi Region, a ranking method was applied, allowing for the identification of intraregional differences and the place of each community in the national context. The assessment was carried out using demographic indicators of territorial communities: total population, changes in population from 2001 to 2021, and the proportions of people younger than working age, of working age, and older than working age. Five groups of territorial communities were identified based on the level of demographic development: highest, high, significant, insufficient, and low. Characteristic features of the demographic situation in the region’s communities were defined; they should be taken into account when developing strategies at various levels.