Digital Twin-Based Driver Risk-Aware Predictive Mobility Analytics for Real-Time Situational Awareness Through Cooperative Sensing

Traffic safety risk significantly impacts road users in urban mobility systems, making it important in transportation management decision-making. Current mobility management strategies predominantly focus on macro-level monitoring through traffic sensing infrastructure, and struggle to capture network-wide, real-time safety risks due to the limited spread of vehicle-based sensors. To address this, we propose a Digital Twin-based Driver Risk-aware Predictive Mobility Analytics (DT-DIMA) system. The DT-DIMA system integrates real-time traffic information from pan-tilt-cameras (PTCs), synchronizes this data into a digital twin to accurately replicate the physical world, and predicts network-wide mobility and safety risks in real time. The system’s innovation lies in its integration of spatial-temporal modeling, simulation, and online control modules. Tested and evaluated under normal traffic conditions and incidental situations (e.g., unexpected accidents, pre-planned work zones) in a simulated testbed in Brooklyn, New York, DT-DIMA demonstrated mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) ranging from 9.40% to 13.12% in estimating network-level traffic volume and MAPEs from 2.12% to 12.97% in network-level safety risk prediction. In addition, the highly accurate safety risk prediction enables PTCs to preemptively monitor road segments with high driving risks before incidents take place. Such proactive PTC surveillance creates around a 5-minute lead time in capturing traffic incidents. The DT-DIMA system enables transportation managers to understand mobility not only in terms of traffic patterns but also driver-experienced safety risks, allowing for proactive resource allocation in response to various traffic situations.