Hedging sanctions risk: Cryptocurrency in central bank reserves

Central banks may shift their international reserve holdings in order to protect themselves ex-ante against the risk of financial sanctions by fiat reserve currency issuers. For example, from 2016 to 2021, countries facing a higher risk of US sanctions increased the gold share of their reserves more than countries facing a lower risk of US sanctions. This paper explores the potential for Bitcoin to serve as an alternative hedging asset. I describe a dynamic Bayesian copula model to simulate the joint returns of Bitcoin and other reserve assets under a wide range of plausible sanctions probabilities, quantifying the extent to which varying levels of sanctions risk increase optimal gold, renminbi, and Bitcoin allocations. I conclude that sanctions risk may diminish the appeal of US Treasuries, propel broader diversification in central bank reserves, and bolster the long-run fundamental value of both cryptocurrency and gold. • The paper simulates the returns of Bitcoin and other reserve assets. • The simulations balance expected return, volatility, and sanctions risk. • In the presence of sanctions, there is no completely safe asset. • The model shows that cryptocurrency can act as a form of insurance. • Sanctions risk may propel broader diversification in central bank reserves.