Exploring the Dynamics of Virtual Water Trade in Crop Products Between Morocco and the European Union

Morocco, located in an arid region and increasingly affected by climate change, faces chronic water stress. This structural vulnerability places mounting pressure on the country’s water resources. International trade contributes significantly to this pressure, particularly through the export of water-intensive agricultural products. This study investigates the virtual water trade flows of the 32 most-traded agricultural products between Morocco and its primary trading partner, the European Union, over the period of 2000–2020. This study adopts a bottom-up approach, employing the FAO’s CROPWAT 8.0 software based on the Penman–Monteith climatic model to estimate crop water requirements. The results indicate that Morocco was a net importer of virtual water in its agricultural trade with EU countries, with a cumulative net virtual water of 51,839.171 million cubic meters (Mm3). During the study period, Morocco exported a total of 3393.791 Mm3 of virtual water to the EU, primarily through fruits (2903.028 Mm3; 85.539%) and vegetables (467.928 Mm3; 13.788%), notably those with high water footprints. The top three EU importers of Moroccan virtual water were France (1138.785 Mm3), the Netherlands (874.323 Mm3), and the United Kingdom (430.872 Mm3). Conversely, virtual water imports by Morocco amounted to 55,232.963 Mm3, overwhelmingly dominated by cereals, which accounted for 99.697% of the total. These imports originated mainly from France (37,154.090 Mm3), Germany (4980.296 Mm3), and Poland (2330.039 Mm3). The analysis of Morocco’s virtual water balance with EU countries revealed that Morocco was a net virtual importer in trade with most of them. Furthermore, the crop-level virtual water trade balance revealed a tendency to export water-intensive crops that offer relatively low economic water productivity. However, four agricultural products recorded a high economic return per unit of Virtual Water Exported: tomatoes returned 19.80 USD/m3, strawberries 16.02 USD/m3, carrots 13.06 USD/m3, and watermelons 8.11 USD/m3. These findings underscore the importance of integrating water footprint analysis into national agricultural policy to maximize the economic productivity of water and ensure the sustainability of resources in a water-stressed country.