Research on Dynamic Weighted Coupling Model of Multi-Energy System Driven by Meteorological Risk Perception

With the aggravation of global climate change and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy are under threat. In response, in traditional wind–solar–storage–hydrogen multi-energy systems, it is difficult to balance power supply resilience, economy, and environmental protection, and such systems cannot meet actual demand due to the lack of a dynamic meteorological integration mechanism. Therefore, a dynamic collaborative optimization model of a multi-energy system driven by meteorological risk perception is proposed. The dynamic meteorological risk factor integrating various meteorological elements is introduced, and the risk response mechanism is established based on the system’s energy storage state to realize the adaptive adjustment of coupled weight parameters and achieve the goal of collaborative optimization of power supply resilience, economy, and environmental protection. The case analysis results show that, compared with other models, the proposed model can reduce the power supply shortage by 23.1% in extreme weather periods, and the system’s survival probability can reach 97.1% at most. The proposed model minimizes the assembly while ensuring that carbon emissions meet standards, and achieves the collaborative optimization of power supply toughness, economy, and environmental protection. It provides a theoretical tool for solving the collaborative optimization problem that energy systems with a high proportion of renewables face in coping with climate risks.