Are Internally Displaced People (IDP) Safe? A Geospatial Analysis of Climate Vulnerability for IDP Communities in Tacloban, Philippines

Internally displaced people (IDPs) are individuals forced to leave their homes due to conflicts or disasters without crossing international borders. Since 2008, weather-related extreme events—primarily storms and floods—have displaced more than 20 million people annually. With global temperatures rising and extreme weather intensifying, the number of IDPs is projected to increase in the coming decades. In the Philippines, resettlement has emerged as a key climate adaptation strategy, with IDP camps established to reduce risks in highly vulnerable areas. Yet, it remains unclear whether these camps are actually located in regions of lower climate vulnerability. This study aims to examine the climate vulnerability of 17 IDP camps by considering physical and infrastructural dimensions to assess whether they are located in safer areas, and to suggest the development of urban forms that can improve community resilience and the living conditions of their populations. Results show significant variation in climate vulnerability, with Villa Diana scoring the lowest and Villa Sofia the highest. Using emergency response facilities as a proxy for social capital, we identified drivers of vulnerability: Villa Sofia faces heightened risks due to population density, flood exposure, and limited emergency facilities, while Villa Diana benefits from greater emergency capacity and abundant vegetation that reduces risk. Our findings provide a systematic framework for assessing climate vulnerability among IDPs and highlight the critical role of social capital in mitigating climate impacts for displaced populations in the Global South, where climate risk mapping and reliable data remain limited.