MODELING, MAPPING AND ANALYSIS OF URBAN FLOODS - CASE STUDY: SKOPJE 2016

<p>An increasing trend of urban floods in Macedonia from past several years causes major damages on the infrastructure, agriculture and human life. Uncontrolled urbanization, inadequate exploitation and management of forest and agricultural land in combination with climate change increase the possibility of more frequent and more intense floods, especially flash floods in urban areas.</p> <p>The subject of this research is the devastating flood that affected the region of Skopje in August 2016, the analysis and determination of the formation process of the flood wave, the modeling and mapping of the flooded zones. A detailed hydrological analysis of the region was developed to determine the reasons for the large peak of the flood wave and a 2D hydraulic model was prepared for the simulation of the propagation of the flood wave and mapping of the flood zones.</p> <p>А digital terrain model (DTM) by applying the GIS tools ARC Map and QGIS was prepared and the physical-geographic characteristics of the watershed were determined. For the needs of the hydrological analysis, information about the land use, pedological, geological and climate characteristics were obtained and substrates were developed. For the generation of surface runoff hydrographs, hydrological models with the application of the WINTR 55 software program were created. By applying the HEC-RAS software package, a two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic model was created and flooding zones in the Skopje region have been defined. Calibration and verification of the model was done with aerial photogrammetry of the flood after 72 hours from the beginning of the flood. The results are presented on maps of maximum depths, maximum velocities and maximum shear stresses in the flood zone.</p>