Key Drivers of Wildfire Occurrence in the Marromeu Complex, Mozambique: Insights from Remote Sensing and Geospatial Analysis

Objective: This study aims to identify the key factors driving fire occurrence in the Marromeu Complex (Mozambique) and to assess the extent to which each environmental, topographic, socio-economic, and vegetation-related variable influences fire frequency. Theoretical Framework: The research is based on fire ecology and landscape ecology, highlighting interactions between climatic variability, vegetation structure, anthropogenic pressures, and topographic factors. Models for fire regime characterization and vulnerability assessment underpin the analysis. Methods: A quantitative approach integrated climatic (temperature, humidity, precipitation), topographic (altitude, slope, solar exposure), land cover, and socio-economic variables (vegetation cover, population density and roads). A statistical modeling framework was applied, explaining 97.8% of fire frequency variation. Results and Discussion: Vegetation cover was the primary driver of fire occurrence, with higher incidence in less dense areas. Temperature, precipitation, population density, and proximity to roads further shaped fire dynamics, while elevation and slope modulated fire spread. Residual variability (2.2%) indicates additional unaccounted drivers. Research Implications: Findings support fire management, risk mitigation, and land-use planning, providing a scientific basis for conservation strategies in tropical ecosystems such as the Marromeu Complex. Originality/Value: The study advances fire regime research by integrating environmental and socio-economic variables in a tropical wetland context. It offers novel insights for conservation management in data-scarce African regions.