Seasonal asynchrony and harvest diversification contribute to demersal finfish fisheries stability in Chesapeake Bay

Biodiversity can confer temporal stability to ecosystem processes through asynchrony in species' abundances and may promote asynchrony and stability of commercial fishing harvests derived from exploited species. However, the linkages between asynchrony in the population dynamics of commercially harvested species and asynchrony of associated harvests have been difficult to resolve due to ecological, social, and economic dynamics that mediate resource extraction. Here, we explored coupled human-ecological relationships and emergent asynchrony using commercial fishing harvest data and fisheries-independent trawl surveys in two regions (Maryland and Virginia) of Chesapeake Bay, USA, from 2002 to 2018. For each region, we sought to identify how seasonal (within-year) asynchrony among harvested fish species contributed to (1) seasonal asynchrony in the harvests of these species and (2) within-year stability and economic value of harvests. We found that, in Maryland, seasonal closure of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) fishing resulted in asynchrony by forcing switching to alternative stocks. In Virginia, seasonal migration of harvested species to and from the Chesapeake Bay promoted harvest compensation and therefore harvest asynchrony. However, this effect was negated by the concurrent effects of an increase in the evenness of species dynamics on harvest compensation, reflecting changes in fishing patterns, primarily following declines in the biomass of Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus). Our findings show that both social (direct management actions and behavioral responses) and emergent properties of ecological systems can influence asynchrony in dynamics of exploited populations and commercial harvests, with implications for their continued management and sustainability.