Understanding the development of Dutch residential energy use in the context of the energy efficiency directive: Combining top-down and bottom-up analysis

Abstract A diverse set of policy instruments targets residential energy use, including building codes, energy performance standards, labels, energy taxes, and subsidies. While bottom-up evaluations suggest these instruments achieve energy savings, top-down evaluations do not always confirm the same results. This discrepancy arises because bottom-up evaluations often rely on assumption-based deemed savings, while top-down analyses may obscure savings due to structural dynamics that cannot be easily isolated. To bridge this gap and better understand the impact of energy efficiency policies within broader energy consumption trends, this study analyses Dutch residential energy use from 2020 to 2023 within the framework of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive (EED). The EED caps total final energy use with an energy efficiency target (Article 4) while imposing an end-use energy savings obligation (Article 8), either by establishing an energy efficiency obligation scheme (Article 9) or by adopting alternative policy measures (Article 10). Our analysis covers two years affected by COVID-19 (2020 and 2021) and two years of elevated energy prices (2022 and 2023). Using chained additive index decomposition analysis, we assess the Article 4 efficiency target top-down by quantifying key drivers: volume, structural, and efficiency effects. We then synthesize the results of 2020 and 2022 with the bottom-up figures reported under the Article 8 energy savings obligation, isolating the loss of energy savings due to the COVID-19 lockdowns and the energy savings from behavioural changes triggered by the energy price shock. Our findings show that bottom-up and top-down evaluations complement each other. Bottom-up analysis helps disentangling efficiency effects in top-down evaluations, while top-down analysis contextualizes bottom-up policy impacts and can potentially be used for consistency checks. Combining these approaches can provide a clearer assessment of the contribution of (combined) energy efficiency policies to climate goals.