Prospective analysis of external environmental costs of energy provision

Abstract Human activities, particularly energy supply, often lead to significant environmental impacts that are typically overlooked in economic markets and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the environmental costs associated with different energy carriers and technologies using prospective life cycle assessment combined with monetary valuation across a broad spectrum of environmental indicators and monetization perspectives. Our findings reveal that, for most energy carriers and technologies, external costs are at least as high as production costs and higher than previously estimated, regardless of choice of monetization perspective used. However, that choice significantly affects the relative importance of environmental indicators and associated costs. Nonetheless, non-climate-related impacts often account for more than half of the total costs. Fossil-based electricity and heat generation exhibit high external costs, whereas renewable and nuclear energy show comparatively lower environmental costs. However, bio-based fuels often incur higher costs than their fossil counterparts due to substantial land use impacts.