Can Water Conservancy Project Regulation Mitigate Climate Change‐Induced Degradation of Avian Food Vegetation in Large Floodplain Wetlands?

Abstract Climate change is projected to induce drought, resulting in the deterioration of avian food vegetation in large floodplain wetlands. The construction of water conservancy project may potentially alleviate this deterioration; however, the combined impact of climate change and water conservancy project regulation on avian food vegetation requires further investigation. In this study, a vegetation community model was developed by integrating a 2D hydrodynamic model and Cellular Automata to simulate the vegetation dynamics in floodplain wetlands. The developed model was applied in Poyang Lake, an important floodplain wetland conservation area in China under the Ramsar Convention, and the potential impact of the proposed Poyang Lake sluice on the deterioration of avian food vegetation caused by climate change was projected. We found that the avian food vegetation would continue to degrade under the influence of climate change, due to the enhanced drought conditions in the future. The extent of hygrophilous avian food vegetation experienced a significant reduction after the sluice operation, whereas the area of submerged avian food vegetation saw a notable increase. In the short term, the operation of the Poyang Lake sluice had a detrimental impact on avian food vegetation, which is primarily attributed to elevated water levels caused by sluice operation leading to submersion of hygrophilous avian food vegetation. Over time, however, the decrease in avian food vegetation caused by climate change will be mitigated by sluice operation, because the stabilized water levels and increased flooding time provide favorable conditions for the growth of submerged avian food vegetation.