The influence of weather conditions on the fire hazard in nature in the protected areas of the Southern Carpathians

The protected areas in the Carpathians are sensitive to different types of natural hazards that threaten different systems. We investigated the possible influence of weather conditions that favour the ignition and spread of fires in protected areas in the Southern Carpathians. We focussed on the Djerdap National Park (Serbia) and the Iron Gates Natural Park (Romania). We used the calculation of climate indices based on the combination of air temperature, precipitation and humidity. The variability of the dynamics of fire occurrence in nature reserves was analysed depending on the change in the value of Forest Aridity Index (FAI), the De Martonne Aridity Index (IDM), the Lang Rain Factor (L) and Angström index (I) in the period 2018-2023. The fire risk was assessed using statistical data on the occurrence of fires in Djerdap National Park and the Iron Gates Natural Park. The data on the period of fire occurrence show that the greatest risk of fire occurrence is in the period March-April (71.1% of the total annual number of fires), when air temperatures are not high. Based on the value of the Angström Index (I), the risk of forest fires is highest in the period July-August. The results obtained show that there is a correlation between the number of fires and the climate indices, whereby the coefficient of determination for the annual values is significantly higher than for the monthly values. The correlation of the monthly dynamics of the occurrence of fires with the climate indices (L, IDM) is stronger for the Djerdap National Park area than for the Iron Gates Nature Park.