Evaluating the economic and social impact of coal mine phaseout in China

Systematic and widespread coal mine phaseouts are imperative to facilitating the transition from coal dependence in China. However, regional disparities in economic reliance on coal and environmental impacts exacerbate the uneven social costs of phaseouts. A fair and effective trajectory for coal mine phaseouts is needed, but remains unclear. This study develops an interdisciplinary framework, incorporating a coal mine-level inventory, to assess the economic costs, health benefits, and regional disparities of two phaseout strategies: the Efficiency Priority Strategy (EPS) and the Equitable Reduction Strategy (ERS). The EPS focuses on phasing out inefficient and heavily polluting coal mines, while the ERS distributes capacity reductions more evenly across all coal mines. The findings reveal a significant imbalance in the distribution of costs and benefits, particularly in core coal-producing regions, which are often economically underdeveloped. These regions bear a disproportionately high share of stranded asset costs while receiving comparatively lower health benefits. Under the ERS, stranded asset costs in core coal-producing regions rise by 25.8%, increasing their share of national costs from 67.9% to 92.1%. Meanwhile, health benefits dropped by 12.7%, reducing their national share from 10.6% to 9.8%. This study provides vital insights for China and other coal-dependent nations to develop more equitable coal mine phaseout policies, striking a balance between economic costs and health benefits within carbon budget constraints.