Research on the Role of Power Sector Waste Heat Recovery on the Energy Transition Process in China

As a natural clean energy, waste heat has a rich total amount and considerable potential in China. It can be broadly applied in various sectors like power generation and heating, saving a lot of fossil energy consumption and effectively reducing carbon emissions, which significantly impacts the carbon peak and carbon neutrality (double carbon) transformation path. Based on the National Energy Strategy and Planning Model (NESAP) coupled with waste heat recycling, this study studies the impact of waste heat recycling in the power industry on the energy transformation path. It quantitatively calculates the energy conservation and carbon reduction potential. The research shows that: (1) power sector waste heat reuse has great potential, especially before 2035. It is estimated that the peak value of power system waste heat recovery will reach 28319 pj in 2035, showing a consistent annual increase of 2.4 % on average. (2) Coal is the primary generator of waste heat, but the proportion will gradually decline. In 2035, the proportion of coal waste heat is as high as 86 %. The share of waste heat from biomass and natural gas has been rising annually. (3) Compared with the baseline scenario, the peak <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$\text{CO}_{2}$</tex> emission of the waste heat recovery scenario can be significantly controlled. From 2030 to 2040, there is an annual emission reduction potential of 800 million tons, contributing 12 % of the carbon emission reduction. After 2040, the emission reduction potential will drop to 8 %.