Assessment Methodology for Market Share of Thermal Power Plants Based on Multidimensional Factors

Considering the substantial impact of renewable energy penetration on the thermal power market share and the challenges in accurate assessment within the framework of the dual-carbon policy, this study presents a new evaluation strategy that integrates long-cycle dynamic layered interpolation (LCDLI) with multidimensional influencing factors. First, at the regional level, the LCDLI method is applied to process provincial power generation data (covering all energy types), from which the total thermal power generation is derived. Second, at the plant level, the LCDLI method is used to forecast the power generation of individual thermal power enterprises. The model further incorporates correction factors, including temperature fluctuations, GDP growth rates, renewable energy curtailment rates, and inter-provincial electricity trading, to refine the assessment results. Finally, case studies verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed strategy in dynamic market share evaluation.