Study on the Energy and Power Transformation Pathways and Scenario Determination Considering Multiple Objectives

To achieve the goal of carbon peak carbon neutralization, energy is the main battlefield, and power is the main force. Accelerating the construction of new power systems and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of power are crucial for carbon mitigation. Exploring the multi-objective coordinated development of safety, cost and low-carbon is an urgent issue for China to promote the construction of a new power system. Based on the National Energy Strategy and Planning model (NESAP), this study proposes the new power system's development path and pattern evolution trend and compares and optimizes the scenarios. The results show that: (1) considering the macroeconomic impact of power system transformation and the system's own security-cost-low carbon goal, achieving medium and long-term sustainable development in the rapid carbon removal scenario is more beneficial under the equal weight evaluation framework. (2) Technological progress helps to control and reduce the investment cost and total cost of power generation. Under the scenario of high-speed technological progress, the total carbon emission of the power system is reduced by 13 % compared with the low-speed scenario. Although technological progress may require higher research and transformation investment in the short term, these investments will bring higher economic returns, better environmental impact and more reliable power supply in the long term. By 2060, compared with the benchmark scenario, the cumulative investment cost of the high-speed technological progress scenario has decreased by nearly 30 %, and the total cumulative power generation cost has decreased by 20.2 %, significantly reducing the power industry cost.