Research on the Security Scenario Simulation and Evolution Path of China’s Power System Based on the SWITCH-China Model

Accelerated climate warming has led to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, resulting in high-frequency, large-scale, and highly destructive power outages and electricity shortages, which serve as a wake-up call for the safe and stable operation of the power system. To predict safety risks, this study constructs a baseline scenario and five power security scenarios based on the SWITCH-China model, systematically assessing the impact of external shocks on the power system’s evolution path and carbon reduction economics. The results indicate that external shocks are the key factors influencing the power system’s installed capacity structure and generation mix. The increase in demand forces the substitution of non-fossil energy. In the demand growth scenario, by 2060, wind and solar installed capacity will be 1.034 billion kilowatts higher than in the baseline scenario. Rising fuel costs will accelerate the exit of fossil fuel units. In the fuel cost increase scenario, 765 million kilowatts of coal power were reduced cumulatively across three time points. Wind and solar outages, along with transmission failures, lead to significant local economic investments while also causing inter-provincial carbon transfer. In the wind and solar outage scenario, provinces with a high proportion of wind and solar, such as Guangdong and Guizhou, see an increase in carbon emissions of 31 million tons and 8 million tons, respectively. Conversely, provinces with a lower proportion of wind and solar, such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, reduce carbon emissions by 46 million tons and 39 million tons, respectively. Energy storage development supports the expansion of non-fossil energy in the power system. The study recommends accelerating wind and solar deployment, building a storage system at the scale of hundreds of billions of kilowatt-hours, and optimizing the inter-provincial transmission network to address the dual challenges of power security and carbon neutrality.