Quantitative risk assessment and critical control point analysis of Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamases(ESBL)Producing Salmonella in chickens "from farm to fork"

• The probability of being infected with ESBL-producing Salmonella from contaminated chicken per meal was 1.72×10 −5 , and the number of people who might be infected was 2.4×10 4 . • Consumer behavior was considered as the most important factor to reduce the risk of potential infection with ESBL-producing Salmonella (R=-0.56). • Key control points for Salmonella were the scalding and depilation (R=0.22) and chilling (R=0.21) processes during slaughtering. • The contamination risk caused by environmental factors was also considerable, cutting utensils (R=0.986**) and butcher block (R=0.985**) were the most critical risk control factors during slaughtering and cutting. To assess the health risk of chicken consumption in China, a quantitative risk assessment model of ESBL-producing Salmonella in broiler from farm to fork was developed. The input parameters of this model were established through site investigation, experiments and literature studies. The final risk estimation was expressed as the average probability of illness with ESBL-producing Salmonella per meal. Spearman correlation coefficient was used to create a tornado chart, which was used to identify key control points. From the quantitative model, the average probability of being ill in China with ESBL-producing Salmonella from contaminated chicken per meal was 1.95×10 −3 . Cooking temperature is also consumer's behavior, which is considered to be the most important factor to reduce the risk of ESBL-producing Salmonella (r=-0.49) . Key control points for Salmonella were the scalding and defeathering (r=0.08) and chilling (r=0.08) processes during slaughter. In addition, the contamination risk caused by environmental factors was also considerable, cutting utensils (r=0.986**) and cutting table (r=0.985**) were the most critical risk control factors during slaughtering and cutting. The developed quantitative risk assessment model provides a framework for the health risk assessment of Salmonella with extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) in chicken in China, which providing technical support for health supervision and risk management along the whole chicken supply chain.