Clinical Predictive Factors for the Development of Short Bowel Syndrome in a Cohort of Patients with Crohn’s Disease: A Prospective Study

<b>Background/Objectives</b>: Crohn's disease (CD) is one of the most frequent causes of short bowel syndrome (SBS), a severe clinical condition with huge morbidity and social costs. SBS occurs when, following intestinal resections, the remaining small bowel in continuity is less than 200 cm in length. Intestinal failure (IF) can complicate SBS when intravenous nutritional or electrolyte supplementation is required to maintain dietary needs. The primary aim of this study was to identify clinical predictive factors of SBS in a cohort of outpatients with CD. <b>Methods</b>: We conducted a prospective, single-center, cohort study enrolling consecutive CD outpatients at a tertiary-level inflammatory bowel disease center. Detailed demographic and clinical features were collected. Significant factors associated with the onset of SBS in the univariate analysis were input into a multivariate logistic regression model to identify independent predictors of SBS. <b>Results</b>: In total, 232 CD patients (52.6% male, median age 49 years [IQR 37-60]) were included: 24.6% of them were smokers; extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs) were present in 21.6% of patients; and 67.7% of patients had at least one intestinal resection (27% of them with more than one surgical intervention). At enrollment, 96.1% of patients were on advanced therapies, and considering the course of the disease, 24.6% of patients were exposed to ≥3 different advanced therapies. A total of 18 patients had SBS and 9 had IF. In univariate analysis, the following variables were statistically associated with the risk of developing SBS: disease duration (<i>p</i> < 0.001), upper gastrointestinal disease localization (L4) (<i>p</i> < 0.001), penetrating behavior (<i>p</i> = 0.023), perianal disease (<i>p</i> = 0.036), length of first intestinal resection (<i>p</i> < 0.001), shorter time elapsing from CD diagnosis to start the first advanced therapy (<i>p</i> < 0.001), and treatment with advanced therapy after first intestinal resection (<i>p</i> < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, disease duration (OR 1.083, 95% C.I. 1.025-1.145, <i>p</i> = 0.005) and L4 (OR 20.079, 95% C.I. 2.473-163.06, <i>p</i> = 0.005) were independently associated with the development of SBS. Conversely, the number of different advanced therapies before the onset of SBS was independently associated with a reduced risk of developing SBS (OR 0.247, 95% C.I. 0.107-0.58, <i>p</i> = 0.001). <b>Conclusions</b>: Our data identifies several clinical features that could possibly predict the development of SBS in CD. Further studies with a larger sample size are needed to confirm our findings.