The influence of transnational terrorism on India-Pakistan relations

The article examines the impact of cross-border terrorism on the development of bilateral relations between India and Pakistan in 1989–2025. Particular attention is paid to the attack on tourists in Pahalgam on 22 April 2025, which became a turning point in the dynamics of the conflict. The features of terrorist activity, the activities of terrorist groups, routes of penetration across the Line of Control, sources of financing, the use of information and communication technologies, the choice of civilian and symbolic targets are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to how India and Pakistan respond to terrorist attacks and how this changes the parameters of interaction between the parties. Changes in diplomatic rhetoric, trade and visa regimes, management of the Indus River waters, the intensity of cross-border incidents and the readiness for limited military strikes are considered. The study examines the relationship between terrorist activity and the domestic policies of India and Pakistan, crisis management mechanisms (activities of directors general for military operations, hotlines) and the risks of nuclear escalation in the logic of "stability – instability". The role of external actors and international sanctions regimes is analyzed separately. The methods of event analysis, comparative analysis of the crises of 2001–2002, 2008, 2016, 2019 and 2025, the escalation process, content analysis of official statements and the media, as well as legal analysis of the Indus Waters Treaty are used. The theoretical optics of the study includes the concepts of "stability – instability" and "escalation ladder". The scientific novelty of the work lies in explaining the link "terrorism – diplomacy – water resources" and clarifying the concept of cross-border terrorism as an instrument of pressure. For the first time, an “escalation cascade” model (terrorist attack → public pressure → demonstrative strikes → diplomatic or water pressure → pause) is presented, based on indicators: selection of civilian targets, infiltration across the Line of Control, signals under the Indus Waters Treaty, elite rhetoric. Analysis of the crises of 2001–2002, 2008, 2016, 2019 and 2025 revealed a shift from attacks on security forces to strikes on the economy and tourism and the institutionalization of the “water lever”. The combination of military responses and water uncertainty increases the risk of nuclear escalation. Conclusion: cross-border terrorism remains a key factor in India-Pakistan relations.