Mathematical Analysis and Optimal Control of a Transmission Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus

In this study, we develop a mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), incorporating the coexistence of two distinct strains. The global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria is analyzed. Bifurcation analysis reveals the occurrence of a forward bifurcation. To control the spread of the infection, Pontryagin’s maximum principle is applied within the framework of optimal control theory, considering intervention strategies such as isolation, treatment, and vaccination. A detailed evaluation of the effectiveness of these control strategies is conducted for a specific population based on a nonlinear optimal control model. Moreover, a cost-effectiveness analysis is performed to identify the most economically viable intervention. The findings indicate that, among the studied interventions, isolation is the most cost-effective strategy for reducing RSV prevalence. The model is numerically solved using the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method, coupled with the forward–backward sweep algorithm, to assess the impact of various control combinations on the transmission dynamics of RSV.

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Publication Details

Journal
Mathematics
Published
2025-09-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/math13182929
Primary Topic
Respiratory viral infections research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Mathematical Analysis and Optimal Control of a Transmission Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Moustafa El-Shahed, Yousef Alnafisah, Zakaria S. Al Ajlan
Mathematics
Respiratory viral infections research
article

Mathematical Analysis and Optimal Control of a Transmission Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Moustafa El-Shahed, Yousef Alnafisah, Zakaria S. Al Ajlan
article en

Abstract

In this study, we develop a mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), incorporating the coexistence of two distinct strains. The global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria is analyzed. Bifurcation analysis reveals the occurrence of a forward bifurcation. To control the spread of the infection, Pontryagin’s maximum principle is applied within the framework of optimal control theory, considering intervention strategies such as isolation, treatment, and vaccination. A detailed evaluation of the effectiveness of these control strategies is conducted for a specific population based on a nonlinear optimal control model. Moreover, a cost-effectiveness analysis is performed to identify the most economically viable intervention. The findings indicate that, among the studied interventions, isolation is the most cost-effective strategy for reducing RSV prevalence. The model is numerically solved using the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method, coupled with the forward–backward sweep algorithm, to assess the impact of various control combinations on the transmission dynamics of RSV.

MathematicsVol. 13(18)
Qassim University (SA)
Qassim University
Openalex Percentile: Top 67%
Respiratory viral infections research
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Mathematical Analysis and Optimal Control of a Transmission Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus — Moustafa El-Shahed, Yousef Alnafisah, et al. · Mathematics (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS