F1 v. IndyCar in the Technological Competition for Race-Speed Supremacy: Continuous, GAM-Estimated Speed-Differential Estimates from a Shared-Course Natural Experiment

This note utilizes a unique shared-course natural experiment to compare speeds of the world’s two fastest full-course auto-racing formats, Formula One (F1) and IndyCar, continuously at each point of the shared course. Unlike previous literature, which estimates average speed differences across the whole shared course, the present study produces generalized additive model (GAM) heat-map estimates of speed-differentials at each point of the course for top testing laps in each format. This note provides a novel, micro-spatial extension of prior aggregate course results. With these refined estimates, we assess whether the two open-wheel racing formats represent technological trade-offs to one another or, alternatively, if one dominates the other technologically in the competition for race-speed supremacy. According to GAM-estimated speed-differentials, F1 maintains a moderate-to-substantial speed-premium throughout all course segments and points, including the course’s long (0.63-mile) straightaway. The estimated segment-level premium ranges from +8.8% to +28.3% over IndyCar, and the GAM-estimated point-level premium ranges from approximately +4% to +30%.