How Small-State Allies Perceive Germany

Abstract Russia’s full-scale attack against Ukraine in February 2022 shattered many longstanding pillars of the European security architecture. One of the most profound changes relates to Germany’s approach to Russia and its role in securing NATO’s eastern flank. In light of Moscow’s aggression, Berlin pledged to strengthen its military footprint in the Baltic Sea region. In this process, has Germany met the expectations of its Baltic allies? In this paper, we seek to probe the views of Germany that go beyond the policy elite’s level. Based on an original face-to-face omnibus survey in Latvia that included 1002 respondents, we assessed the public opinion of Germany. Contrary to the views expressed by political elites in the region, our representative survey attests that at the societal level, Germany is valued and appreciated as a security actor. Latvians, based on our survey, are rather favorable toward future German leadership as a security actor and express trust in its military support. Our findings reveal certain divisions between the political elites and the wider society that ask for explanations beyond the different compositions in terms of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.