Future Changes Based on Climate Risk Indicators Across the Troodos Mountains in Cyprus

The future climate is anticipated to affect economic activities, the unique natural and forest ecosystems, agriculture, buildings, and communities in the region of the Troodos Mountains in Cyprus. The current study, as part of the European project Regions4Climate (R4C), aimed to develop a sustainable tourism model for this specific region to ensure the climate resilience of the Troodos communities while preserving its traditional products and ecosystems for future generations. Tangible key risk climate indicators were calculated using the CORDEX climate surface datasets to estimate the spatial changes under two climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The climate indicators were specifically selected to identify several known regional hazards, such as drought, heatwaves, forest fires, etc., that are linked to impacts on socio-economic activities like tourism, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, and water resources.