Long‐Term Trends in Juvenile Blue Crab Recruitment Patterns in a Wind‐Driven Estuary

ABSTRACT Conserving exploited marine species requires understanding population dynamics across life stages and habitats. This study analyzes juvenile blue crab ( Callinectes sapidus ) recruitment trends in North Carolina's Albemarle‐Pamlico Estuarine System. Juvenile densities (2.2–20 mm of carapace width) were compared across three nursery habitats, western shore Ruppia maritima seagrass beds (WSG), western shallow detrital habitats (SDH), and eastern mixed‐species seagrass beds (ESG), during two periods: 1996–1999 (pre–fishery decline) and 2017–2019 (post‐decline). WSG consistently supported higher juvenile densities than both ESG and SDH despite its ephemeral nature and distance from larval sources. Surprisingly, juvenile densities did not differ between time periods, suggesting that recruitment overfishing is unlikely. A weak stock–recruit relationship and no recruit‐to‐spawning stock link indicate a potential population bottleneck post‐nursery but pre‐maturity. Salinity significantly affected catch per unit effort, and spawning data revealed the importance of integrating environmental variability into fisheries assessments. These findings highlight the importance of conserving key nursery habitats and conducting further research into juvenile population dynamics for sustainable management.