Effect of the price of yellow maize (Zea mays L.) imports on animal protein consumption in Mexico

Objective: to determine the effect of the price of yellow maize imports on animal protein consumption, through time series analysis, to provide empirical evidence of the effect of trade policies on the animal protein consumption by the population in Mexico. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: the Food Trade Dependency Index (FTDI) was calculated to measure the degree of dependence on imports of this grain. Data from the National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure (ENIGH in Mexico) were used to account for household expenditure on consumption of beef, chicken meat and pork, eggs, and milk, in three basic baskets of goods. Regressions were performed with the Autoregressive Vector (ARV) method and Granger causality tests. Results: results indicated that variations in the price of yellow maize imports have a direct impact on the price of animal protein. This, in turn, can affect Mexico’s population access to essential sources of animal protein, especially in low-income households. Limitations/ Implications of the study: this research did not consider other factors that can also influence the price of animal protein; such as, production costs, domestic demand and seasonal variations in protein consumption. This fact can limit the comprehensive understanding of the causal relationship found with the study variables. Findings/ Conclusions: this research highlighted the vulnerability of the Mexican agrifood industry to international trade dynamics. It also underlines the importance of designing strategies to enhance competitiveness in the domestic production of yellow maize.